Podcast 12 Geniuses - Futurist Friday - Ufuk Tarhan (Türkçe Alt Yazılı video-ses kaydı ve İngilizce tam metin)
İngilizce kaydı, Türkçe altyazı ile dinlemek için yukardaki görsele ya da buraya tıklayın
Orijinal kaydına 12 Geniuses sitesinden ulaşabileceğiniz, Don MacPherson tarafından kurgulanan ve gerçekleştirilen "Fütürist Cuma" podcast serisinde dünyanın çeşitli bölgelerinden seçilen 12 önemli fütürist ve düşünür yer alıyor.
Türkçe alt yazı eklenen bu bölümde Ufuk Tarhan'ı dinlemektesiniz.
Ufuk Tarhan, fütürist, ekonomist, keynote speaker ve Türkiye'de kitapları çok satan bir yazar. Forbes Dergisi'nin "En Etkili 50 Kadın Fütürist" ve "Dünyanın En İyi 100 Kadın Fütüristi" listelerinde yer alan tek Türk kadını. İş dünyası ve geleceğe yönelik dergiler ve online platformlar için makaleler yazıyor ve aktif ve etkili bir sosyal medya içerik üreticis.
Podcast'de Ufuk Tarhan, araştırmalarında düzenli olarak kullandığı çok çeşitli kaynakları paylaşıyor. Yaşlanma ve yaşlanmaya devam eden küresel nüfusun tüm yaşam biçimimizi nasıl değiştireceği dahil yakından takip ettiği tüm diğer trendleri özetliyor.
Konuşmasını, 2020'lerden 2060 yılına kadar gerçekleşmesi muhtemel teknolojik gelişmeleri anlatarak iddialı bir bakışla bitiriyor.
Don McPherson sordu, Ufuk Tarhan yanıtladı 👇
What are you reading, watching, listening to that you would recommend our listeners should pay attention to in order to better prepare for the future?
I’ve started to learn about futurism and future by reading “The Futurist Magazines” which had been published by World Future Society till 2014 December. Then I discovered Alvin Toffler’s books. Those magazines and Toffler’s books were first mind openers for me. Especially the books; “Future Shock, Third Wave, Revolutionary Wealth” are the ones which triggered and changed my whole thinking systematic along with the Futurist Magazines.
Reading those materials, seeing practically all of Toffler's and other futurists' videos on YouTube, and making more research on Future Studies has entirely changed my perspective and way of thinking. After discovering that the future is neither a static state nor a definite time period, but rather a dynamic process, a continuous change, and it is becoming structured through vivid interaction with humans and nature like a liquid thing, I could never be able to look at to the future like most people do.
Then I’ve discovered Jacques Fresco. That was another step, another level of enlightenment for me!His “The Venus Project” and books “The Best That Money Can't Buy: Beyond Politics, Poverty and War”, also “Designing the Future” and all other works, his CD’s which shows all his futuristic designs as animations are so so precious sources and absolutely beyond regular people’s mind capacity. Besides I could also find chance to meet and have long discussion with him on 2008 in Turkiye, Istanbul. He was the keynote speaker of Turkiye’s first Futurist Summit which I’ve designed, curated and organized.
For personal Future Planning model, I’ve worked with Dr. Verne Wheelright and his book “It's YOUR Future... Make it a Good One!”. I also contributed Turkish Translation of that book.
I’ve read almost all books, watched all videos of Ray Kurzweil, Mitchio Kaku, Ramez Naam, Sohail Inayatullah, Juan Enriquez, Patrick Dixon, Anne Skare Nielsen, Thomas Frey, Gerd Leonhard, Neil de Grasse Tyson and Lately “Max Tegmark’s Life 3.0”. After Toffler and Fresco, this one took me to a whole new level...
Of course, I also read, listen to, and watch all new generation futuristic media sources and portals like Weird, Futurism, Mashable, MIT Sloan, Singularity Hub, TechRunch, and Interesting Engineering stand out.
Last but not least, I'm doing everything I can to gather any available Chinese-related information and sources. I have a WeChat account and I follow several Chinese news agency accounts. I'm interested in gathering news from China because, according to all kinds of serious social economic research - trend reporting organizations and respectful people's opinions - they will be the world's largest economic power by 2030.
How do you do your research? Most importantly, how, do you evaluate your sources?
Of course, I evaluate myself by reading and thinking a lot. But, more importantly, I write frequently and on a regular basis. I've been quite active and well-disciplined blogger since 2006. You may be perplexed by my reference to 2006, but you are correct because blogging did not exist until 2009. That is to say, I began blogging before blogging was even a thing, and I described it as my personal website where I post Turkish articles, interviews, photo albums, videos about the future, futurism, technology, future planning methodology, T-Human, and industrial future trends.
The starting point for these blogging and sharing initiatives is, indeed, my country's low foreign language literacy and the realization that practically all futuristic information is produced in English around the world. In Turkiye, the literacy rate in English is 10% of the total population. That is why I felt compelled to share Turkish futuristic content in order to make my own people aware of critical future information in their native language.
My people, particularly the younger generation, should have fully grasped the concept of futurism. And the Turkish people should contribute to the future already having one of humanity's greatest organically futurist leaders, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.
As a result, I felt obliged and so motivated to spread Turkish Futuristic content in my homeland, and I also pioneered "Future Studies" classes , seminars and programs a lot at Turkish universities.
Yess, that was my main driver, and because of that mission, I always felt a great responsibility to make research to be able to present true, correct, timely I mean futurly, developing, inspiring, rational information, which naturally led to me becoming a diligent researcher.
Aside from all of this, I am also a member of several international organizations, such as the World Future Society and Millennium Project Group, which conducts large Delphi studies, workshops, and futuristic scenario studies.
What social trend (by social trend, I mean aging, addiction, mental health, human rights; I don’t mean social media) are you exploring right now?
My main concentration area as a futurist is always "future of business and future-proof competencies." I'm trying to figure out where we are now and where we're going in terms of business. I am working on high possibility foresights and direct suggestions which will help especially C-Suit Leaders, mid aged+young professionals and youth.
And to be able to provide such “future of business consultancy” service to people and organizations; recently I work on “Sustainable Capitalism”, “Dataconomy”, “Kardashev Scale’s Type-1 Civilization” and “T-Human which is the personal transformation model to become a future-fit profile ”.
Those ones are macro, horizontal issues on top of or beneath of everything. For the vertical topics that I dig deeper, of course I am very much working and thinking on “aging" trend because the world's population is becoming older. According to UN reports, every nation in the globe is seeing an increase in the number and percentage of elderly people in its population. According to the Globe Population Reports; since 1950, all areas have seen significant increase in life expectancy and increase in longevity. Population aging is anticipated to become one of the most significant social transformations of the twenty-first century, affecting nearly every sector of society, including labor and financial markets, demand for goods and services such as housing, transportation, and social protection, as well as family structures and intergenerational ties.
Many nations are projected to experience budgetary and political constraints in the next decades in connection to public health care, pensions, and social safeguards for an aging population. Globally, the number of people aged 65 and older is expanding faster than all other age groups combined.
According to UN forecasts, as of 2050, “one in every six” persons in the world will be over the age of 65 (16 percent). It was “one in every eleven” in 2019. (9 percent ).
By 2050, “one in every four” people in Europe and Northern America may be 65 or older. Persons aged 65 and above outnumbered children under the age of five for the first time in history in 2018.
The number of people aged 80 and more is expected to quadruple, rising from 143 million in 2019 to 426 million in 2050.
Taking this crucial fact into our consideration and the main reasons of that trend are “fertility, mortality, and migration”. And, of course, all these statistics regarding the aging population are significant drivers for our foresights about “future of business”.
What are the implications of this trend – positive, negative, opportunities, etc?
The first and most important negative impact expectation all over the world is the “long-term fiscal sustainability of public finances”. The ageing population is seen as one of the primary threats to the sustainability of public finances, creating increasing pressures on healthcare and long-term care and pension systems. As people live longer, more years being dependent on healthcare and long-term care services will increase at an increasing rate inevitably.
Another negative impact is the ratio of people of working age to those of retirement age is declining. This demographic development causes considerable macroeconomic consequences, which also affect exports, imports and age-related changes in productivity, savings and inflation negatively.
Sociologically, older people are often assumed to be frail or dependent and a burden to the society and this ageist attitudes also may lead to discrimination which will not have any good result in terms of any area.
Of course, the ageing population has positive opportunities too.
First of all the elderly population are not only the patients and long-term care residents from the dismal fiscal policy forecasts, but also consumers and active members of society, many wanting to continue working or otherwise contribute to the society long after the normal pension age.
And they will create demand for new innovative solutions that will allow them to combine a normal lifestyle with the various health and social care needs of a high age, creating new business opportunities for entrepreneurs in wellbeing, home / health-care and assisted living.
Last but not least; learnings from aging societies will create awareness for young people in terms of healthy ageing instead of a sickly ageing. Also in this area will innovative products and services provide many of the tools that are needed. Disease prevention is rapidly becoming more and more advanced with the advent of big data, genomics, predictive analytics and precision medicine. And new digital health services will allow patients to be cared for in their homes, rather than in the hospital, both saving costs for the health systems and increasing quality of life for the patients and their families. Many of these new solutions will be developed by new partnerships consisting of both old and new players in the healthcare sector, and by public and private actors.
In short as well as environmental changes we need to focus on demographic developments to create a better future, especially to the aging issue.
What new technology are you tracking?
It is difficult to mention or focus on only one technological development which will effect and create a new, better and of course sustainable future. The ongoing changes happening right now and the ones that will happen will be affected and created by many other technological developments which can be listed under three headlines. I will give them as a list, but before doing that, I will prioritize some of them, because they are mandatory for other technological developments; 100% digital transformation and Web 3.0, which are mandatory for blockchain, crypto assets and metaverse as the door openers. Then we can continue with my technology tracking list till 2060’s into three layers.
First layer is Hyper Trends; “Nano, Genetics and Space Technologies, and Trans Humanism”. I see them as the core drivers for everything else.
These ones have resulted in three simultaneous and enormously significant developments known as the "Digital, Robotics along with Artficial Intelligence, and Renewable Energy Revolutions." The world is experiencing all of these revolutionary changes at the same time, yet if we only had one of these, everything on Earth would be turned upside down. And now, all three revolutions, digital, robotics, and renewable energy, are coexisting. As a result, the globe is going through a very challenging transformative moment in terms of social, financial, ecological, and technological factors.
Actually due to those hyper and mega trends, By 2060, the humanity will be working to realize and disseminate the following technology trends;
Big Data, Cloud Computing, 5G, Blockchain, 100% Digital Transformation, Crypto assets, Web 3.0, Metaverse, Artificial Intelligence, Digital Twins, Metaverse, Wearable Technologies, Augmented, Virtual-Extended-Mixed Reality, Holograms, 3D Technologies, Quantum Computing, Drones, Autonomous Vehicles, vertical farming, lab meats, artificial organs.
In the next ten to twenty years, humanity will work tirelessly to develop completely new and sustainable life, business, and management systems.
For this part, I should add that I am working on Kardashev Scale’s Type 1 which is a method of measuring a civilization's level of technological advancement based on the amount of energy it is able to use. Type I designation mean being able to harness all the energy that is available from a neighboring star, gathering and storing it to meet the energy demands of a growing population. This means that we would need to boost our current energy production over 100,000 times to reach this status. However, being able to harness all Earth’s energy would also mean that we could have control over all natural forces.
How will it serve humanity? What are its risks?
We are living in a time when everyone recognizes that the current life and business systems are unsustainable because we still could not find “sustainable, clean and endless energy sources” and we still could not develop a kind of circular economy infrastructure for our basic needs.
As we all realized during COVID Pandemic and various natural disasters we as humans are still so weak against nature. We are still not able to control climate conditions, earthquakes, floods, wildfires, etc. We are helpless against ant electric or internet cut and unfortunately still whatever we do is harmful to nature's and humanity's health. Capitalism, mass production and consumer economies, war economies, and the use of fossil-based energy are all bad for something, and we fully recognize that we require a major reset. All systems must be rebuilt from the ground up because whatever we do is harmful for “future” itself. So, we need to focus on rescue the future itself
So, holistically looking at past, present and future by taking all these factors into consideration will serve not only humanity, but also environment, ecology and earth as a whole…
We need a strong paradigm shift and we need to accept that we are not the citizens of that country or that nation, but we are all the citizens of Earth. We are just the Citizens of the same World and if we want to survive and create a sustainable future we need to open a sustainable capitalism transitional road first. For that we should solve clean and endless energy problem then we should create a fully digital infrastructures on which every person on Earth has broad band and hyper fast internet access to be able to utilize web 3.0, blockchain and crypto currency structure for financial freedom. Along with those technical conditions we should also be able to realize a new agricultural revolution.
Coming to the risk part of your question; The risk of not being able to solve finding and using sustainable clean energy is unsustainable and chaotic future… This is so clear.
What’s filling you with a sense of optimism?
Future studies along with curiosity and knowledge… To know and understand the future better and better every day makes keeps me positive. Increasing awareness in especially young people's mind and their humanist, ecologist and dataist approaches makes me hopeful to believe in reaching Type-1 Civilization Level.
12 Geniuses Sitesi için link 👉 https://bit.ly/3KzWDfb
Aşağıdaki görsele tıklayarak 12 Fütüristin Podcast'lerinin özetini de okuyabilirsiniz 👇
Link: Futurist Friday with Ufuk Tarhan — 12 Geniuses
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Ufuk Tarhan'ın “Yarının İşini Yarına Bırakma” kitabı için > https://yarininisiniyarinabirakma.com/
Ufuk Tarhan'ın “T-İnsan” kitabı için > https://www.t-insan.com
Bireysel Antrenörlük almak için > https://goo.gl/6RfGXa
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